THE PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET
Posted May 21, 2008on:
The global energy market is approximately ten trillion dollars and growing.
Today’s photovoltaic market is 30 billion dollars. It has been growing at more than 30% per year for the last decade and it is likely to continue to do so in the foreseeable future.
EVERYTHING THAT IS NOW BIG WAS ONCE SMALL
Today’s global energy consumption = 15 TW
2004 annual sales: 1.1 GW = 0.0011TW
2035 annual sales: 1,100 GW = 1.1 TW (est.)
2004 installed Base: 3 GW = 0.003 TW
2035 installed Base: 5,500 GW = 5.5 TW (est.)
For the last ten years the market for photovoltaic solar cells has been growing at 35% per year and today it is a 30 billion dollar market. In 2006 global electricity consumption was 19,028 TWh, at an average price of 15 cents per kWh this represents a market of approximately 3 trillion dollars.
If we assume:
The photovoltaic market will continue to grow at 35% per year
The global electricity market will grow at 2.5% per year
2% of the 2006 generation capacity will be replaced every year.
It follows that by 2020 12% of the electricity generation capacity that needs to be created will have been supplied by photovoltaics. In other words: there is plenty of room to continue the historical growth trend.
The world produced 4 GWp of photovolataic modules in 2007 at an average price of $7.50 per Wp. Most of the 30 billion dollar photovoltaic market is based on silicon cells.
For the last three hundred years we have switched our primary energy source every hundred years.
In the 18th century it was wood, coal fueled the industrial revolution in the 19th century and oil was the most successful energy source in the 20th century.
Over the next decades renewables will prove themselves as the dominant energy source of the 21st century.